This is why Iran attacked Israel..
Oct 04, 2024Iran's missile attack on Israel seems to be a direct response to a series of high-profile assassinations, particularly that of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas official. These killings represented a severe blow to Iran’s influence in the region. Hezbollah, in particular, is central to Iran’s regional strategy, especially in the Levant, and the regime has heavily invested both financially and militarily in Hezbollah for decades.
Iran likely felt cornered. After the assassination of Haniyeh, Iran’s choice to not respond hurt its credibility, especially among its allies. To do nothing after Nasrallah’s death would have made Iran appear weak and vulnerable, which could be existentially dangerous for a regime that relies on projecting strength. This made retaliation against Israel a strategic necessity, even though it came with significant risks.
The missile strike wasn’t just for show. It was designed to overwhelm Israel’s missile defense systems (ABM umbrella) by launching hundreds of missiles simultaneously, aiming to strike military infrastructure such as airstrips and possibly classified military sites. Even though Israel had advanced warning and evacuated some targets, Iran likely achieved SOME of its goal of limiting Israel’s ability to conduct further long-range strikes, including air operations and targeted assassinations.
This attack was part of Iran’s effort to level the playing field, primarily by reducing Israel’s air superiority over Iran’s proxies, like Hezbollah, in Lebanon. By doing so, Iran is trying to ensure that Israel's ability to retaliate or escalate is disrupted.
Ultimately, Iran’s focus appears to be on demonstrating strength and containing the threat from Israel while avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. or triggering a larger conflict. The regime took a calculated risk, likely believing that a strong military response was the least costly option in a difficult situation.
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