Intelligence Summary 09 August 2024

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Europe - Ukraine in Kursk: Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast are pressuring the Kremlin to act, with potential responses including deploying existing forces, redirecting units, or enhancing airstrikes.

Middle East - Iranian Retaliation: Iran is likely to launch a large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to recent provocations, based on recent public statements and planning discussions.

Europe

Ukraine Incursion into Kursk

Situation

Ukrainian forces have reportedly been employing innovative tactics and technology in operations within Russia's Kursk Oblast, leading to significant concerns among Russian military bloggers. The Kremlin is likely determined to reclaim any territory lost in Kursk, as continued Ukrainian advances could severely undermine President Vladimir Putin's efforts to portray Russia as a stable and secure power.

Putin recently met with Kursk Oblast's Acting Head, Alexey Smirnov, to discuss the situation, though they avoided acknowledging any Russian setbacks. Russian bloggers have voiced worries over civilian safety and the disorganized evacuation efforts. Putin is likely aware that he must address these concerns to maintain domestic support.

Assessment

The Russian military has several potential responses to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast:

1. Utilizing Current Forces: Russian command might deploy existing conscripts, FSB border guards, Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already stationed near the border. Although these forces may not be the most effective, they could be used to repel Ukrainian advances.

2. Deploying the Northern Grouping of Forces: This group, although weakened by previous battles, might be redirected to counter the Ukrainian threat in Kursk, potentially stretching Russian defenses elsewhere.

3. Redeploying Operational Reserves: The Russian military might consider sending more experienced and better-equipped units from other areas, though this could compromise ongoing operations in Ukraine.

4. Increasing Air and Strike Capabilities: Russia might enhance its aerial operations and ground-based strikes in Kursk to regain lost territory, though Ukrainian air defense and aviation capabilities may pose challenges to this approach.

48 Hour Assessment:

• The introduction of HIMARS systems by the Ukrainian Armed Forces suggests a potential escalation in their offensive capabilities, possibly indicating preparation for a border breakthrough in the Kursk direction.
• Given the slowdown of Ukrainian operations near Sudzha, it is likely that Ukrainian forces may refocus efforts towards the Rylsk region to exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian defenses.
• The damage to the energy infrastructure and military airfield in Lipetsk could impair Russian logistical and operational capacity in the region, potentially affecting their response time and effectiveness in countering Ukrainian advances.

Middle East

Situation

Iran and its Axis of Resistance are increasingly likely to retaliate against Israel following the recent killing of senior leaders within the Axis. Previously, the likelihood of a coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack by Iran was considered among the most dangerous potential responses, though not the most probable. However, recent developments and public statements from Iranian officials and military-affiliated media have shifted this scenario into a more probable course of action.

Iranian military officials and media outlets closely tied to the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) have openly discussed the possibility of a direct attack on Israel. These discussions have included details on the groups involved, potential targets, and strategies to increase the effectiveness of such an attack. Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of the AFGS, along with other senior Iranian leaders, have indicated that Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, are prepared to engage directly in retaliatory strikes against Israel.

Assessment

Given the recent public rhetoric and detailed discussions by Iranian officials, a coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its Axis of Resistance has become the most likely response to Israel's actions. The involvement of the AFGS in these plans suggests a serious intent to carry out such an operation. While the threat of a full-scale attack on both Israel and U.S. forces remains low, the probability of a significant retaliatory strike by Iran has increased.

ENDS