Global Security Brief: Missiles, Separatists, and Strategic Shifts

Indo - Pacific Brief 13 Sept 24

North Korea has launched several heavy missile submarines into the East Sea. On 12 September, at 7:10 a.m., North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles from the Pyongyang area. The missiles flew approximately 360 kilometers before landing in the sea outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone. The exact number of missiles launched was not reported. This follows a previous missile test on 1 July, when Pyongyang claimed to have tested a new tactical ballistic missile capable of carrying a super-large warhead weighing 4.5 tons.

In addition, North Korea has unveiled a new 12-axle Road-Mobile Missile System (RGMS), a ground-based strategic missile platform capable of transporting self-propelled missile launchers over difficult terrains. This system is likely an upgraded version of the 11-axle launcher used for the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile and is capable of carrying and launching a longer missile, potentially still under development.

On 12 September, as part of the “Okean-2024” strategic command and staff exercise, two Russian Tu-22M3 long-range bombers conducted a five-hour flight over the neutral waters of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean, simulating attacks on a naval group of a hypothetical enemy. The Japanese Ministry of Defense also reported the flight of two Tu-142 anti-submarine aircraft from the Russian Pacific Fleet around Japan.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command at Hurlburt Field, Florida, conducted an exercise involving MQ-9 reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial vehicle operators. The exercise simulated strikes on Mischief Reef in the South China Sea, where China has established outposts with civilian and military infrastructure.

ALCON Strategic Assessment

Recent military developments in the Indo-Pacific region signal heightened strategic tensions among key regional and global actors. North Korea’s deployment of heavy missile submarines and the launch of short-range ballistic missiles demonstrate a continued effort to enhance its military capabilities and assert its strategic presence. The unveiling of a new 12-axle mobile missile system suggests advancements in missile mobility and range, potentially increasing the reach of its strategic arsenal. These actions are likely aimed at strengthening deterrence, projecting power, and potentially gaining leverage in international negotiations.

Russia’s military exercises, including long-range bomber flights simulating attacks on naval groups and anti-submarine aircraft operations near Japan, indicate an intent to project military power and maintain a strategic foothold in the Pacific region. These activities may be perceived by neighboring countries as provocative, potentially prompting them to bolster their own defense measures and reassess their security postures.

Africa Brief 13 Sept 24

The situation in Mali remains complex and volatile. The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and the Wagner Group are struggling against a growing insurgency led by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). Recently, the Azawad separatists, represented by the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), have renewed their fight for independence against the government, capturing several FAMa bases.

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is exiting the country at the government’s demand. As MINUSMA forces withdraw, FAMa and Wagner units departed from Gao, heading north in multiple convoys into MNLA-controlled areas to secure the vacated UN bases. However, the MNLA has employed hit-and-run tactics, halting the convoys at Anefis.

MINUSMA has completed its departure from Aguelhok and Tessalit. By successfully delaying and blocking the army’s advance northward, the MNLA has taken control of the former UN bases and surrounding towns. The UN has commenced the process of departing from their base in Kidal, which is currently under MNLA control and serves as the movement’s capital.

ALCON 7-Day Assessment

Over the next seven days, the security situation in northern Mali is likely to deteriorate further. The withdrawal of MINUSMA forces creates a power vacuum that the MNLA and jihadist groups such as AQIM and JNIM are poised to exploit. It is probable that the MNLA will consolidate control over key towns and former UN bases, particularly in and around Kidal, Aguelhok, and Tessalit.

The FAMa and Wagner convoys currently stalled at Anefis are likely to face continued resistance from MNLA forces employing guerrilla tactics. The MNLA’s knowledge of the terrain and local support gives them a tactical advantage. Consequently, the likelihood of FAMa successfully securing the northern regions in the short term is low.

AQIM and JNIM may seize the opportunity to expand their influence amid the chaos. There is a moderate to high risk of increased attacks against military and civilian targets as these groups attempt to undermine government authority and gain territorial control.

Humanitarian conditions may worsen due to the conflict escalation and the departure of UN forces. Displacement of civilians is likely to increase, and access to essential services may be disrupted. International concern is expected to grow, but significant external intervention is unlikely within this timeframe.

Russia - Ukraine Brief 13 Sept 24

UAV Strikes: At least 24 “Geranium” unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) struck Ukrainian rear areas overnight. Explosions were reported in Odessa, Ilyichevsk, Nikolayev, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Ivano-Frankovsk, and Vinnitsa regions.

Kursk Region: Russian forces continue their flanking strike, advancing from the west to the Lyubimovka-Tolsty Lug-Daryino line, reportedly securing over 10 settlements. Ukrainian forces remain active near Cherkasskoye-Porechnoye, continuing their attempts to advance. Over the past two days, Ukrainian forces have attempted to breach the border in the southern Glushkovsky district near Novy Put and Veseloye, utilizing engineering demolition vehicles (one destroyed) and armored vehicles. The situation remains tense but controlled. Reports suggest potential exhaustion of Ukrainian reserves and limited rotation, though this has not significantly affected combat intensity.

Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces destroyed several bridges in the Ukrainian rear. Reports indicate Ukrainian units have withdrawn from Ukrainsk to avoid encirclement. Fighting continues in Grodovka, north of Novogrodovka, and on the eastern outskirts of Lysovka, with Russian maneuver groups maintaining offensive operations. Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack northeast of Novogrodovka, deploying paratroopers near Orlovka, indicating the engagement of reserves. To the south, west of Krasnogorovka, Russian forces initiated a large-scale attack on Ostroye, involving up to 46 pieces of equipment according to Ukrainian estimates. Despite heavy fighting and expanded Russian control near Krasnogorovka, Ukrainian reports claim they have held back the advance on Ostroye.

Ugledar Area: High-intensity fighting continues. Ukrainian forces have reinforced their positions. Clashes are reported in Zolotaya Niva and near Prechistovka.

Kherson Region: Ukrainian forces shelled Novaya Kakhovka, targeting the central market with at least 11 strikes. One civilian was killed, and eight others (six women and two men) were injured.

Bryansk Region: Six Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed overnight.

Belgorod Region: The village of Novaya Tavolzhanka in the Shebekinsky district came under fire. In Beryozovka, the roof of a private residence was damaged after two explosive devices were dropped from a UAV.

Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR): In the Nikitovsky district of Gorlovka, three employees of the DPR State Unitary Enterprise Comtel were injured when an explosive device was dropped from a UAV onto a car. Two men born in 1983 and 1977 later died in the hospital, along with another man born in 1963.

ALCON 7-Day Assessment

Over the next seven days, it is probable that the intensity of combat in the highlighted regions will remain elevated. Russian forces are likely to continue their offensive operations in the Kursk region and Pokrovsk direction, aiming to consolidate recent gains and exert pressure on Ukrainian defensive positions. The reported exhaustion of Ukrainian reserves and limited troop rotation may lead to decreased defensive effectiveness, although this has not yet significantly diminished combat activities.

In areas such as Toretsk and Ugledar, sustained fighting is expected to continue. Ukrainian forces may attempt counteroffensives, particularly where they have recently deployed reserves, as indicated near Orlovka. The deployment of paratroopers suggests a strategic effort to disrupt Russian advances.

The use of UAVs for strikes and reconnaissance by both sides is likely to persist, potentially resulting in further damage to infrastructure and civilian areas, as observed in recent incidents in the Kherson and Belgorod regions. There is a moderate likelihood of continued artillery shelling in contested regions, which may lead to additional civilian casualties.

Ukrainian forces may focus on disrupting Russian supply lines and targeting rear areas, as evidenced by attempts to breach the border in the Glushkovsky district. Conversely, Russian forces might prioritize cutting off key logistical routes for Ukrainian units, as suggested by the destruction of bridges in the Pokrovsk direction.

Overall, while neither side is expected to achieve a decisive breakthrough in the coming week, localized advances and territorial shifts are possible. The continuation of high-intensity engagements is likely, with both forces seeking tactical advantages amid challenging operational conditions.​.